Correlation versus causation

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The following is excerpted from The Vision of the Anointed by Thomas Sowell, pp. 54-56:

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Correlation versus causation

One of the first things taught in introductory statistics is that correlation is not causation. It is also one of the first things forgotten. Where there is a substantial correlation between A and B, this might mean that:

1. A causes B.

2. B causes A.

3. Both A and B are results of C or some other combination of factors.

4. It is a coincidence.

Those with the vision of the anointed almost invariably choose one of the first two patterns of causation, the particular direction of causation depending on which is more consistent with that vision — not which is more consistent with empirical facts. As part of that vision, explanations which exempt the individual from personal responsibility for unhappy circumstances in his life are consistently favored over explanations in which the individual’s own actions are a major ingredient in unfortunate outcomes. Thus the correlation between lack of prenatal care and high infant mortality rates was blamed by the media on society’s failure to provide enough prenatal care to poor women, rather than blaming those women’s failure to behave responsibly — whether in seeking prenatal care, avoiding drugs and alcohol during pregnancy, or in many other evidences of deficient parental responsibility. The fact that there is no such correlation between lack of prenatal care and high infant mortality rates in groups which traditionally take more care of their children is simply ignored.

A study making comparisons within the black community in Washington found that there was indeed a correlation between prenatal care and low birth weight among infants — but the mothers who failed to get prenatal care were also smokers twice as often as the others and alcohol users six times as often. In other words, the same attitudes and behavior which jeopardized the infants’ well-being in one way also jeopardized it in others. Failure to seek prenatal care was a symptom, rather than a cause. In terms of our little scheme above, C caused both A and B. However, this study going completely against the vision of the anointed was almost completely ignored in the national media.

Similarly, the fact that crime and poverty are correlated is automatically taken to mean that poverty causes crime, not that similar attitudes or behavior patterns may contribute to both poverty and crime. For a long time it was automatically assumed among social reformers that slums were the “nurseries of crime.” In other words, the correlation between bad housing and high crime rates was taken to mean that the former caused the later — not that both reflected similar attitudes and behavior patterns. But the vision of the anointed has survived even after massive programs of government-provided housing have led to these brand-new housing projects quickly degenerating into new slums and becoming centers of escalating crime. Likewise, massive increases in government spending on children during the 1960s were accompanied by falling test scores, a doubling of the teenage suicide and homicide rates, and a doubling of the share of births to unwed mothers. Yet, during the 1980s, such social pathologies were attributed to cutbacks in social programs under the Reagan administration — to “neglect,” as Marian Wright Edelman of the Children’s Defense Fund put it. The fact that the same kinds of social deterioration were going on during a decade (the 1960s) when the government spending on programs for children was rapidly escalating, as well as during a decade (the 1980s) when it was not, simply did not matter to those for whom “investment” in social programs was axiomatically taken to be the magic key.

In general, where a correlation goes directly counter to the vision of the anointed — drastically fewer urban riots during administrations which opposed the “war on poverty” approach — it is simply ignored by those seeking “Aha!” statistics. Likewise ignored is the continued escalation of venereal diseases, long after sex education has become too pervasive for ignorance to be blamed, except by those for whom the vision of the anointed is an axiom, rather than a hypothesis.

In speaking of the differences in economic and social outcomes due to racial differences, Dr. Sowell states, p.58:

Many of the “racial” differences based on gross statistics are shown by a finer breakdown to be differences between people of different values and lifestyles, who are differing proportions of different racial populations. Where the values and lifestyles are comparable, the economic and social outcomes have tended to be comparable. But to admit this would be to destroy a whole framework of assumptions behind massive social programs — and destroy with it a whole social vision that is prevalent among political and intellectual elites. Such finer breakdowns receive very little attention in the media, in politics, or in academia, where gross statistics continue to be cited in support of the vision of the anointed.

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The above illustrates just how highly dishonest the modern liberal mind is. The liberals are not interested in Truth. They are only interested in facts that support their own erroneous assumptions. Anything that contradicts their beliefs is ignored. They don’t want to hear it. The modern Left is like a fanatical religion. If it doesn’t fit with their own assumptions, their own outlooks and views, they reject it. Underneath this liberal religion is a moral outlook that is very different from the Christian outlook. And the liberal left owns all of the critical organs of our society. Their megaphones are everywhere.

We live in a society of lies. Lies are everywhere. We are all being continually bombarded by lies. Lies coming from every direction. If you repeat something enough times people will believe it. If you told people that two plus two was five enough times they would believe it. Most people are not critical thinkers. They are easily influenced. They believe what they are told. They are not so interested in Truth as to stop, examine, question, think, exert themselves for Truth. People are mostly easily manipulated. Most people are more emotion oriented, feeling oriented than reason oriented, mind oriented. Something sounds great to them? They are all for it. Let’s go! They don’t really want to go to the trouble or time of thinking about it, examining it.

What is the source of all of these foolish lies that underlie the modern western societies? It is modern Liberalism.

Promiscuous sex is in fashion. Homosexuality is in fashion. Christianity and its voice and values are suppressed, hated and mocked.

People’s minds work in terms of basic assumptions. Many, many assumptions. If your assumptions are wrong your conclusions will be wrong. If your basic assumptions are wrong, your mind will not be able to see the truth. You will be lost to Truth.

The liberal /socialist mentality: People are all victims — victims of a bad system. Their personal problems are due to a bad social system. The answer to all of the problems of society is to replace the bad capitalist system with a great socialist system. The solutions to peoples’ problems lie in government action, social programs. We tax, take Peter and Paul’s money, and use it for social programs.

All of this political correctness of the new, modern liberal religion that has been so hammered into the minds of people for many years now. It is foolishness! And it affects people’s ability to see through to the truth. Wrong assumptions block the mind from seeing the truth.

6 Nov 2023