This Coronavirus is a monster that could be devastating if allowed to go unchecked

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Website owner:  James Miller

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Suppose a new virus (such as the Coronavirus) has just emerged in the world that is very highly communicable, very contagious, and whose symptoms are very mild or nonexistent in most people, but very serious in a small percentage of people, killing, say, 1% of the total number affected. Suppose a person infected with this virus travels to a large densely populated city that is totally clean of the virus before he arrives. How fast will the virus propagate in this city?

Let us try to get some get some understanding of the problem by making some hypothetical assumptions and using some hypothetical numbers: Suppose he arrives in the city and infects two people the first day, then on the second day he and those two infected people each infect two more people, on the third day all those infected each infect two more people, etc. How many people will be infected at the end of the n-th day? If j represents the number of people that are infected at the beginning of the k-th day, then j + 2j is the number of people that will be infected at the end of the day. At the end of the first day 3 people will be infected. At the end of the second day 3 + 2×3 = 3×3 =3² people will be infected. At the end of the third day, 3² + 2×3² = 3³ people will be infected. Etc. Each day the number of people infected triples. At the end of the n-th day 3ⁿ people will be infected. So how many people is that after, say 15 days? The answer is given as 3¹⁵ = 14,348,907 people. That is a lot of people, right?! Suppose that only 15% of those infected people require hospitalization. Well, 15% of 14,348,907 people is 2,152,336 people. Do you think that 2,152,336 people requiring hospitalization over a period of 15 days would overwhelm the system? How many of those people do you think would actually get treated? Suppose with good medical attention only 1% of infected people die. One percent of 14,348,907 people is 143,489 people. What percentage of people do you think would die if they had no medical attention? Three or four times that?

One person infecting two people in a day doesn’t sound too unreasonable. When you consider all of the many objects that are touched by many people in our modern urban society - door handles, stair rails, subway poles, subway handrails, elevator buttons, etc. - and the fact that one single infected person with the virus on his hands can touch many things in the course of a day it doesn’t sound too surprising that a single person could be the source of infection of many people in a day. Any person who touches a contaminated surface can receive a virus transfer to his hand and then if he touches his eyes, nose or mouth he can get sick with the virus (the main gateway to the body is eyes, nose, and mouth).

If one wishes to consider a case in which a person infects only one person in a day instead of two we can consider that. In this case the number of people infected each day doubles instead of tripling and the number of people infected at the end of the n-th day is 2ⁿ. How many people would be infected at this rate after 20 days? The answer is 2²⁰ = 1,048,576 people. We can see that in either case the number of people infected increases exponentially with the number of passing days.

This Coronavirus is sweeping through the countries of the world like wildfire. So far it has hit China, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, and the USA hard with a lot of deaths often overwhelming medical resources. It is also hitting most other countries hard. The current world population is 7.8 billion people. Suppose this virus raced through all the countries of the world overwhelming all efforts and medical resources? Suppose it killed 3% of the world population? How many people is that? Well, that would be 234,000,000 people. The population of the USA is around 330 million. Three percent of that is 9.9 million. The entire world has implemented very strong and hard measures to battle this beast and they are slowing it down. What would it do if it were allowed to go unrestrained?

By very hard, strong measures involving banning public gatherings, shutting down schools, closing restaurants and many businesses, etc. the United States has been able control the spread of the Coronavirus to a substantial extent and keep it from totally overwhelming our medical system. These measures were only imposed about three weeks ago and have worked to substantially slow the spread of the virus. However, after only three weeks of shutdown we are seeing big public demonstrations of conservative type people (Republicans) demanding that the restrictions be lifted. They say the cure is worse than the disease. They just don’t want to take the cure. It is too hard. They say the cure is destroying the economy. Well, the measures are having a devastating effect on the economy. That is true. It is damaging business and the country in a big way. I am sure that Las Vegas would like to open up very badly. They need those crowds. They need that money. I would say that there are a lot of businessmen in this country with a lot of money who are more concerned about money and their personal interests than they are about human life. Money and personal interest trumps all. They want to get back to an open society and economy. They would just open up again and let the virus wash over the land.

I am a very conservative person. I am shocked that so many conservatives would think in this way. I am ashamed of them. It reveals a lot about them that is not good at all. It shows real hardness, selfishness, unconcern about others. I think a lot of these people pressing for removal of the restrictions are intellectually, mentally, unsophisticated people who just don’t understand what this Coronavirus is capable of doing if it goes unopposed (what a monster it has the potential of becoming). They just don’t understand. They just believe what their conservative leaders are telling them — which happens to be what they want to hear. They are followers. They don’t think, they just believe and follow. They are just foolish people not accustomed to thinking. I am suddenly developing a very bad opinion of conservatives (not that there is any chance of me ever becoming a liberal). They are coming across as very unfeeling. They may feel that the virus poses little threat to them personally and that the older people who are most vulnerable are expendable.

Right now these hard, economically destructive measures are holding the virus in check. Lift them and this animal could turn into a real beast killing huge numbers of people very fast. If these people get their way and states do open up we will see what happens. They could end up with a whole lot of blood on their hands.

Trump has been criticized for his handling of the Coronavirus, as well as for many other things. I am not sure most of the criticism is justified. I think he has handled most things pretty well. I have mixed feelings about Donald Trump. I am very much turned off by egocentric personalities, arrogance, maliciousness, vindictiveness, abusiveness, etc. as I am sure many people are. That kind of thing makes a very bad impression with me. High pride causes people to be highly sensitive which causes a lot of negative personality traits. I don’t like nastiness and Trump is prone to a lot of nastiness. Wise, prudent people know when to keep their mouth shut. Wise people say little and keep most of their thoughts to themselves. That is certainly not Donald Trump. However, President Trump has been very much abused by the likes of the Washington Post and the New York Times who have not been at all balanced and fair with him. He has in fact been abused very badly from all quarters. So a lot of this response and behavior is understandable. And I do agree with him in most of the things he has done and the stands he has taken. I agree with him that we need to stop all this flow into our country of illegal Latins. I agree with him on his China policy. The economy really surged under him until the Coronavirus came along and I give him credit for that. And most of all, he stands against the Left and its beliefs and values. So his outlook is like mine on most issues. A whole lot of the country does stand solidly behind him in spite of his negative personality traits. I am sure the reason for this is simply conservative reaction to the liberal left and what it stands for. He represents the only option against the Left. Most conservative people just hate the liberal left so much that they would literally vote for anyone, no matter what kind of person he was, if he were standing against the Left. I had a bad opinion of Trump from the beginning and didn’t vote for him (I didn’t vote for Hillary either - I didn’t vote). However, even with all of his negative personality traits, I would certainly vote for him over any Democrat. I would just never vote for any Democrat. The liberals have said a lot of ugly things about Trump and I may suspect that much of what they say may be true but, on the other hand, they are very biased themselves and hate him so much that I wouldn’t trust anything they say either. He has made a whole lot of enemies who would love to do him harm.

Apr 2020